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Volume 1, No. 2, p97–105, October 2013
Articles
Dynamics of childhood growth and obesity: development and validation of a quantitative mathematical model

Dr Kevin D Hall, PhDcorrespondenceemail, Prof Nancy F Butte, PhD, Prof Boyd A Swinburn, MD, Carson C Chow, PhD
Published Online: 30 July 2013
Open AccessArticle has an altmetric score of 112
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2213-8587(13)70051-2 |
Open access funded by National Institutes of Health
showArticle Info
This article can be found in the following collections: Paediatric endocrinology; Obesity; Adolescent health; Public Health
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Summary
Background
Clinicians and policy makers need the ability to predict quantitatively how childhood bodyweight will respond to obesity interventions.

Methods
We developed and validated a mathematical model of childhood energy balance that accounts for healthy growth and development of obesity, and that makes quantitative predictions about weight-management interventions. The model was calibrated to reference body composition data in healthy children and validated by comparing model predictions with data other than those used to build the model.

Findings
The model accurately simulated the changes in body composition and energy expenditure reported in reference data during healthy growth, and predicted increases in energy intake from ages 5–18 years of roughly 1200 kcal per day in boys and 900 kcal per day in girls. Development of childhood obesity necessitated a substantially greater excess energy intake than for development of adult obesity. Furthermore, excess energy intake in overweight and obese children calculated by the model greatly exceeded the typical energy balance calculated on the basis of growth charts. At the population level, the excess weight of US children in 2003–06 was associated with a mean increase in energy intake of roughly 200 kcal per day per child compared with similar children in 1971–74. The model also suggests that therapeutic windows when children can outgrow obesity without losing weight might exist, especially during periods of high growth potential in boys who are not severely obese.

Interpretation
This model quantifies the energy excess underlying obesity and calculates the necessary intervention magnitude to achieve bodyweight change in children. Policy makers and clinicians now have a quantitative technique for understanding the childhood obesity epidemic and planning interventions to control it.

Funding
Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.

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CORRECTIONS
Correction to Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol 2013; published online July 30
COMMENT
Food intake and childhood obesity: accurate estimation of requirements?
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